The 2024/25 UEFA Nations League group stage is finally coming to an end, as we are going into the last round this weekend. Italy will host the French team in a game that will decide the leaders of Group A2, as both teams have already qualified for the playoffs, which will start in March of next year.
France needs to beat Italy by two goals and score at least three goals to top the group, so what should we expect from this matchup?
| ℹ️ Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2024-25, League A, Group A2, Matchday 6 |
| ⚽️ Venue: | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, Italy |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17 November 2024 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:45 GMT on Sunday |
According to the best sportsbooks for football, Italy are the slight home underdogs at 2.80 (18/10). A draw is offered at 3.30 (23/10), while France are the away favorites at 2.65 (33/20) to beat the Azzurri in the last round.
Les Bleus have had the upper hand in this matchup in recent years, as in the last 10 head-to-head games, France won six, drew once, and Italy won three. The Azzurri won an impressive game at Parc des Princes in the very first game of the group, so they currently have the better tiebreaks.
| Standings | Group A2 Teams | Matches Played | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Italy | 5 | 13 |
| 2nd | France | 5 | 10 |
| 3rd | Belgium | 5 | 4 |
| 4th | Israel | 5 | 1 |
Italy and France have both clinched playoff spots before the last group-stage round. Belgium will face a League B team in the relegation playoffs if it does not lose heavily to Israel, while the latter will go down directly to the UEFA Nations League, League B, in the next edition.
Italy have been in great form in this event so far, as they are unbeaten after winning four games and drawing one. Luciano Spalletti’s team didn’t perform well at all during their title defense at the 2024 Euro tournament, having won only one of four games, but they bounced back with a five-game unbeaten streak here.
Getting Sandro Tonali back from his 10-month suspension has been huge for Italy, and he scored the winner in their latest game over Belgium. Davide Frattesi is the Azzurri’s top scorer in the tournament with three goals, while Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Mateo Retegui scored two goals each. Riccardo Calafiori and Samuele Ricci are both out with injuries.
The French football bookies have their national team as third favorites to win the title after Spain and Germany, despite their poor form lately. Les Bleus managed to score only four goals in six matches in the last Euro, and they aren’t performing any better in the Nations League, having lost a big match to Italy and drawn with Israel earlier.
Randal Kolo Muani scored three goals for France in this tournament, and he has been their primary striker lately, as Didier Deschamps didn’t call Kylian Mbappe in the last two international breaks. Wesley Fofana, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Loic Bade are all out with injuries.
3 (100%)
0
The best sportsbooks in Italy have great odds for the team to win this game, but you can also go with the safer option of the draw-no-bet for a good value. The Azzurri completely dominated this matchup in the reverse fixture in France, as they had expected goals (xG) of 2.12 and Les Bleus had only 0.79. France weren’t clinical enough to win this latest game, as they missed six big chances against a much weaker opponent. Italy lost only once in their last 14 home games.
3 (100%)
0
Italy have by far the best offense among all the four groups in the Nations League, League A, having scored 13 goals in five games so far, despite facing two strong opponents in France and Belgium. They have scored at least one goal in 13 of their last 14 home games, so we expect them to get on the score sheet in this match. Les Bleus also managed to score in five of their last six matches despite their poor form, so there’s a good chance that both teams will score here.
3 (100%)
0
The Azzurri scored two or more goals in four of their last five matches, including their game with France in September. Italy are on top of their form at home right now, and they will be up against the shaky French defense, which has kept only two clean sheets in their last six matches. Les Bleus need a big win to win this group, and they will go all out attack as they don’t have anything to lose either, so Italy will have a lot of chances on the counterattack as they like to play.
The Azzurri are performing at a very high level right now, and they are playing at home, so we expect a positive result from them. Make sure you use our 2024 Italy vs France betting predictions and bet them at the legal European bookies to have more fun watching the game.
