The Wild Card Round had a couple of betting upsets and multiple blowout wins. As a result, we’ve got some sizeable spreads to weigh up for this weekend’s Divisional Round.
Three of the four games have spreads of six points of more, with the latest Playoff instalment of the Bills-Chiefs rivalry being the only game at fewer than six points.
Here are our four best bets for the NFL Divisional Round in 2024.
This is a tantalising matchup. Lamar Jackson is going to win league MVP. CJ Stroud has been phenomenal as a rookie, including a glittering performance to knock out the Cleveland Browns last weekend.
A couple of weeks of rest are a massive advantage for the Ravens. They beat the Houston Texans by 16 points in Week 1, and are unsurprisingly favoured by over a touchdown for this game.
Keeping the Browns, Colts and Titans quiet offensively is one thing. Doing the same to the Ravens, who were fourth in points per game, is a much greater ask.
The storm that postponed the Bills and Steelers will have passed. It’ll be cold, but the forecast looks clear. Look for both teams to get into the twenties in offence here, with the Ravens ultimately winning the game.
Pick: Over 44.5 total points @ 10/11 with Betfred
Jordan Love’s Playoff debut couldn’t have gone any better. Green Bay Packers obliterated the Dallas Cowboys in Texas – their reward is a trip to north California to face Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers juggernaut.
Green Bay finished the regular season strongly. Their defence stifled the Vikings and Bears before forcing two turnovers against the Cowboys. Stopping these Niners is perhaps the toughest task in the league, however.
The touchdown-fest in Dallas has pushed this total up to 50.5, which looks a bit high. As explosive as San Francisco’s offence can be, we think the Packers can at least keep them under relative control, which should keep the total below the half century.
Pick: Under 50.5 points @ 10/11 with QuinnBet
The Buccaneers defence stifled the Eagles on Monday night. Baker Mayfield again stepped up for his team, outplaying Jalen Hurts to book Tampa Bay’s surprise spot in the Divisional Round.
The Bucs are still hefty underdogs here. Detroit’s offence did enough to see off the Los Angeles Rams, making it seven wins from their last eight at Ford Field.
Detroit’s offensive line will be tested by Tampa Bay’s pass rush. The Lions’ defence is a weakness, too, but we think Jared Goff can put enough points on the board to cover this spread.
Pick: Detroit Lions -6 @ 10/11 with William Hill
Icy conditions have pushed this total down. Both Buffalo and Kansas City have been profitable on the under this season, but this line just seems far too low with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen healthy.
These teams have leaned on their defences to get this far. The weakness of Kansas City’s receiving corps has been well-publicised. Allen’s Bills have scored 30 points just once since their bye in Week 14, and these teams combined for only 37 points in their last meeting.
Still, the over looks like the way to go here. These quarterbacks have treated us to two Playoff shootouts in recent years, and while it’s unlikely to get into the seventies with how the defences have played, we wouldn’t be surprised to see this game get well into the fifties.
Pick: Over 46.5 total points @ 10/11 with bet365
